Andrew Hayward, professor of infectious illness epidemiology at College Faculty London (UCL) and member of the Scientific Advisory Group for Emergencies (Sage), instructed Instances Radio that opening faculties, then reopening shops and the relief of social guidelines are “very massive steps” and “we don’t actually perceive what affect they’ll have on transmission”.
Talking in a private capability, he mentioned that there are “a really giant variety of individuals” who’re “more likely to find yourself in hospital and die”.
He added: “And that can nonetheless be the case for some time. Though vaccines clearly take the acute and can forestall us from having a whole lot of 1000’s of circumstances, there are nonetheless prospects for us to get tens of 1000’s of hospitalizations. and scores of deaths if we loosen up too rapidly. “
He mentioned he agreed that there have to be a 5 week interval between phases and that it’s “proper to take this cautious strategy”, including: “It has taken us a very long time to learn to be. cautious about it; I do not suppose it is time to return to a riskier strategy. “
Requested about an outbreak of infections within the winter, he mentioned: “What the vaccine ought to do is remove the likelihood that this surge may result in, say, greater than 100,000 deaths. I feel it is unlikely. … we will be more likely to be speaking concerning the tens of 1000’s of deaths and hopefully tens of 1000’s of deaths.
“It sounds horrible, however the truth is it is not that completely different from what we endure every year with the flu and different respiratory infections.”