Welcome to your daly NBA DFS digest to Fake Teams, gentlemen. Every day I’m here with a handful of pro tips for building a winning team in just a few hours. And on top of that, I’ll bring you some statistical trends from last week’s games!
Gotta Win The Day: Best / Worst DraftKings Plays For Tonight’s Slate
- Love: Trae Young (PG). Trae yells “bounce back” and that’s all you need to know about this room. Last Friday, Young had his worst game since April 4 (!!!) when he scored just 18 DKFP against the Warriors. Since that game he has fallen below 40 DKFP just six times, and a few of them were only a few points away from that mark. It’s simply impossible for Trae to score 15 pops for the second night in a row, especially as Milwaukee continues to adjust and put the pincers on the point guard. Trae is posting a healthy 29 PPG average in the 15 playoff games he’s played to date, and he’s very close to nightly one-up at 9.9 APG per day with 2.9 RPG and 1.3 SPG. This random shot performance in G2 (only 16 FGA and 3 FTA) at 37% from the ground is not going to be repeated. Turnovers have been pretty high lately (4, 6, 6 and 9) but even then Trae was able to rack up some goodies in G1 with a score of 76-FP. That’s obviously Trae’s cap, but one should still expect Young to easily hit the 45-60 FP clip.
- Hate: Clint Capela (C). If you know me, you know I’m not very high on Capela’s playoffs. Clint was our captain in G1, sure, but he was absolutely atrocious in G2 with just 11 (!) DKFP in 25 minutes of playing time. It was Capela’s worst game of the year from a football perspective. efficiency and counting. He posted a rating of 0.44 FP / min, and the 11 FP was five behind his second lowest tally (Feb. 10 against the Mavs). While Capela didn’t have much of a chance to thrive on offense in G2 (only 5 FGA and no freebies), the truth is that these numbers correspond to his average usage (rate around 12%) and he needs to be perfect off the ground while racking up planks to be a viable fantasy game. He hasn’t been that player lately, however, having failed to double in five of the last eight games, far from his regular season averages. The 12-19-2-1-1 line for 44 DKFP to kick off the series was sublime, but it feels more like an outlier than a realistic nighttime expectation.
- Love: Jrue Holiday (PG / SG). Playing Trae Young (read above) instead of Giannis (he will be huge too, but with a higher salary) allows us to play Jrue at the SG slot without any problem, especially considering his salary. “Down” during the day. Jrue has been fantastic for some time now, and what’s more encouraging is really lately: in the last 10 days, Jrue has three 39+ DKFP games with two entering the 49+ realm and an explosion of 61 DKFP in one of these against Atlanta in G1. Holiday continues to fly under the Giannis-Middleton radar, but that doesn’t make sense to me. Holiday put up 33 and 22 pops in this series, cooks up pennies effortlessly, has more than 2 actions per game in the first two games, avoids turning the ball too much and does not incur any problems at all. fault. Jrue is a fantastic sweetheart always at a low price, so you better take advantage.
- Hate: Khris Middleton (SG / SF). Khris was right in the Midd throughout the second-round series against the Nets, and he only improved in every passing game, dropping from 40 to 68 to 56 in the last three to send Brooklyn to the race. Against the Hawks, however, Khris hasn’t been so good so far, putting in two back-to-back DKFP games under 40 with 31 in G1 and 38 in G2. Obviously, this second mark seems weak but was really effective considering its 28 minutes of playing time. The point is that this tally will not be enough for fantasy contests. Middleton isn’t going to hurt his potential with silly actions like turnovers or personal fouls, but his shots in the last three games have fallen to a meager 35% off the ground, even on a healthy 20+ FGA, while his line a packed but low 6-6-1 against the Hawks. Again, this is not the worst part, but for second-tier employees, I would rather buy myself Jrue shares.
What to cook? Regular season statistical trends
- Nikola Jokic is set to become the reigning MVP … in the NBA, but not in the fantasy world! Russell Westbrook, who’s been in tears for a month and a change, is the one on that front, folks. Westbrook closed the season averaging 58.2 FP per game, good enough to beat Nikola Jokic by a measly 0.6 FPPG!
- On a pure count basis, however, Jokic gets the advantage because he played seven more games than Russ. The final count is Jokic 3 914 FP, Russ 3 548 FP. No other player crossed the 3,400 FP mark that year.
- The most effective player of the season was Giannis Antetokounmpo, who posted 1.72 FP / min in 57 games averaging 33.5 MPG. The two big ones Jokic and Joel Embiid completed the top 3 with similar scores of 1.62 FP / min.
- It is reasonable to expect centers to exceed the Points per shot ranking because they operate in painting most of the time. The top 3 players were Rudy Gobert (1.84 pts / shot), Jarrett Allen (1.78) and Dwight Howard (1.76). But there is a clear outlier among the top scorers: Kevin Durant with 1.70 points per shot. It’s absolutely crazy for a non-center player. If we don’t count Zion as a winger (that’s a big deal to me given his shooting profile) then Durant is the only non-center qualified in the top 20, with Jimmy Butler at no. 21 but already down to 1.51 Pts / Shot.
- As stupid as it sounds even if no one wants to acknowledge the feat anymore: Russ just finished his Fourth season on average a triple-double. What the hell, man? Russ closed it on an 11-22-11 mid line. Bonkers.
- Ridiculous and cheap values (min. 30 games played): Kenyon Martin Jr., Ty Jerome, JaVale, Stewart, Brunson, Melton, Hart, Rudy Gay, Portis, Nunn, Robert Williams, Reiz, Cody Zeller, Whiteside, Diallo
- A little more expensive but still with a massive ROI: Olynyk, Garland, Thad Young, Plumlee, McConnell, Dray, Harrison Barnes, Derrick White, Lonzo, Holmes, Rose, Anunoby, Nurkic, Ant Edwards, Haliburton, Bobby Portis, Kemba
- Some very expensive players who don’t do enough: Anthony Davis, Simmons, Booker, Ingram, Porzingis, Drummond, John Collins, Nance, Aaron Gordon, Kuzma, Harrell
- Cheap points: McDermott, Monk, Quickley, Lonnie, Bacon, Reid, Poole, Bullock, Mills, Jerome, Grayson Allen, NAW, Monte Morris, Lamb, Forbes, Gary Harris
- Three cheap: Danny Green, Ellington, Bullock, Mills, Forbes, Monk, Jerome, Grayson, Shamet, Cam Johnson
- Cheap boards: Willy Hernangomez, Stewart, Noel, Mo Bamba, Whiteside, Tony Bradley, Birch, Vanderbilt, Favors, Taj Gibson, Biyombo, Kleber, Bruce Brown, Kenyon, Baynes, McGee
- Inexpensive Dimes: Satoransky, Rondo, McLaughlin, Ish Smith, Tyus, Jerome, Saben Lee, Campazzo, Cam Payne, Cory Joseph, DJ Augustin, Monte Morris
- Cheap flights: Thybulle, Danny Green, Campazzo, Neto, Caruso, Melton, Okeke, Noel, McLaughlin, Bazemore, Vanderbilt, Nwaba, NAW, Okoro, Cory Joseph, Iggy
- Cheap blocks: Noel, Gafford, Mo Bamba, Bitadze, Stewart, Whiteside, Biyombo, McGee, Gasol, Thybulle, Taj Gibson, Reiz, Favors, Len, Pokusevski, Derrick Jones, Eubanks
- Inexpensive FG% (min. 8 FGA): McDermott, Reid, Monte Morris, Bullock, Jerome, NAW, Cam Johnson, Jaylen Nowell
If you have any comments or questions on the daily column, tonight’s games, players involved in them, or even sa whole season Fantastic NBA topics, drop it below or contact me on Twitter at @chapulana and I’ll get back to you as soon as I pick up a keyboard!